How will automated vehicles impact transit-oriented development?

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TOD experts and advocates have a challenge ahead — to prepare for the impacts of AVs on land use and real estate.  (Photo credit: Travis Wise via Flickr)

Automated vehicles (AVs) are in the national spotlight, and over the last three years, companies have invested $80 billion in developing AV technology, with billions more to come. While the implementation of AVs might be in the near future, companies still need to conduct billions of miles of testing. In the meantime, TOD experts and advocates should thoughtfully consider how AVs might impact land use and real estate.

One major consideration is parking—if AVs are largely utilized in a shared use capacity, will parking garages become obsolete? If so, garages that are financed through fees or bonds could face difficulties paying themselves off. Urban planners and designers may need to find ways to redesign and repurpose garages for alternative uses. If parking requirements are no longer needed at TODs, cost of development could also decrease.

The use of curb space also raises questions. Currently, curb space is largely dedicated to parking or left alone completely and pick up and drop off patterns of ride-hailing services can create significant traffic disturbances on busy streets. If AVs are implemented largely in a shared use capacity, the subsequent rise in demand for ride-hailing services could exacerbate these issues; communities may need to create more dedicated loading and unloading zones for passengers, particularly near transit hubs and stations that offer first/last-mile solutions.

Last but not least, commercial spaces at TODs will also need to find ways to adapt. As e-commerce continues to gain popularity, AVs will also play a large role in package deliveries and could contribute to the reduction in demand for brick and mortar stores or even become roving stores themselves. TODs will need to continue attracting new or specialized types of ground floor retail and find ways to repurpose existing parking spaces that are unused.

Though AVs will change many things about cities small and large, transit stations and systems will continue to be valuable assets. Transit will continue solving a fundamental problem of geometry in urban areas — moving many people in a limited amount of space. So it’s crucial that cities, transit agencies, the private sector, and others thoughtfully develop the areas around their transit stations and lines to most effectively serve and grow ridership, albeit with one eye on the changing needs of the future.

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